TRENOS SiGINT: Cacao-free Chocolate & Beanless Coffee

JC Analyst – September, 2025

Signal:

Cacao-free chocolate and beanless coffee are no longer fringe experiments. With cocoa futures breaking $10,000/tonne and weather stress pushing Arabica off its traditional lands, substitutes are moving into mainstream pipelines. Corporate validation (Mondelez backing Celleste), scale-up partnerships (Voyage + Cargill), and footprint advantages (Atomo, Pluri) point to early adoption in blends, coatings, and foodservice channels before full consumer-facing rollout.

Human Factor:

Consumers don’t want to give up rituals, a creamy hot chocolate at night, a flat white on the way to work. The appeal here is emotional continuity delivering same taste, less destruction. Winning brands will double down on flavour parity, transparent ethics, and stable pricing against volatile commodities.

TRENOS Metrics Snapshot

Signal	Data Point	TikTok Views	Retail Footprint	Ingredient Format	Product Range	Consumer Segment	Brand Origin	Export Status	Trend Classification	System Pressure Point
Cocoa inflation shock	Cocoa >$10k/t futures	—	Driving corporate R&D	N/A	N/A	Mass & premium	Global	Active	Commodity hedge	Price volatility
Cell-cocoa (Celleste Bio)	7-day cell maturation; Mondelez funding	—	B2B pilots	Cultured butter/powder	Ingredients	Confectionery makers	Israel	Pre-scale	Bio-manufacturing	Land & deforestation
Fermented alt-choc (WNWN)	Grain + carob base; wholesale packs	—	DTC + bakery supply	Fermented plant base	Bars, coatings	Flexitarians, vegans	UK	Shipping	Ethical sourcing	Labour & habitat risk
Beanless coffee (Atomo)	~83% fewer emissions, ~70% less land	—	Cafés (US/JP/UK), Amazon	Upcycled plant aromatics	Espresso, blends	Coffee lovers	USA	Active	Climate footprint	Land & water use
Cell-coffee (Pluri)	Est. 98% less water, 95% less land	—	R&D/partnerships	Plant cell culture	Ingredients	B2B coffee	Israel	Pre-commercial	Bio-manufacturing	Water scarcity
Voyage Foods scale-up	Ohio plant + Cargill tie-up	—	Foodservice & CPG	Plant formulations	Bars, coatings, coffee	Mass snacking	USA	Scaling	Supply resilience	Commodity spikes

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