TRENOS SiGINT: Plant-Based Yogurt Surges as ANZ Brands Feel the Squeeze

Analyst: Scott Mathias November 2025

Signal:

Global plant-based yogurt demand is expanding at a steady 9.2% annual growth, led by gut-health trends and the normalisation of dairy-free products in mainstream retail. Coconut yogurt remains one of the strongest textural performers, but ANZ brands like Raglan (NZ), COYO (AU), and Coco Bella (AU) operate with a strategic disadvantage: total reliance on imported coconut cream and milk from Thailand and Sri Lanka. This creates structural vulnerability in cost, availability, and freight exposure, a risk largely invisible to consumers but increasingly material for manufacturers.

Human Factor:

Shoppers reach for coconut yogurt because it feels indulgent, familiar, and “clean.” But they’re unaware their favourite local brand may be one shipping delay away from a production shortfall. The emotional link is local; the supply chain is not. That disconnect is becoming a defining pressure point for the category.

TRENOS Metrics Snapshot

Field	Data
Signal	Global plant-based yogurt growth + ANZ coconut supply vulnerability
Data Point	Market growing at 9.2% CAGR; ANZ brands reliant on Thai/Sri Lankan coconut inputs
TikTok Views	#dairyfreeyogurt ~115M; #coconutyogurt trending in recipe space
Retail Footprint	Woolworths AU, Coles AU, Countdown NZ, independents; premium fridge sets
Ingredient Format	Coconut cream, coconut milk, cultures, stabilisers
Product Range	Coconut yogurt (plain, vanilla, cacao, fruit-on-bottom), kids’ pouches
Consumer Segment	Dairy-free, flexitarian, gut-health shoppers, allergy households
Brand Origin	ANZ (Raglan, COYO, Coco Bella), global entrants expanding
Export Status	Mostly domestic; limited cross-border penetration due to chilled logistics
Trend Classification	Alt-dairy maturation; gut-health meets clean-label
System Pressure Point	High reliance on imported coconut; freight + cost volatility
Momentum	Medium–High (category still expanding in AU/NZ)
Sentiment	Positive but price-sensitive
Where Signal Is Loudest	Australia & NZ supermarket cold aisles; wellness influencers; family shoppers
Related Links	Global alt-dairy reports; recent price data from Thai/Sri Lankan coconut processors

Long Play Analysis - Plant-Based Yogurt Surges as ANZ Brands Feel the Squeeze

The future of coconut yogurt in ANZ hinges less on consumer appetite, which remains solid, and more on whether brands can stabilise raw-material supply without passing eye-watering price increases onto shoppers. Coconut supply chains are notoriously sensitive to tropical weather, labour availability, and export protocols. Add freight volatility, and every 40-foot container becomes a financial gamble.

Raglan, COYO, and Coco Bella have strong consumer equity, but they’re competing in categories where private labels are getting bolder and cheaper. If retailers push harder on margins, smaller ANZ coconut-yogurt brands may face consolidation or reformulation pressure. Coconut will always deliver the best texture, but diversification into oat, cashew, or hybrid bases might become a survival strategy.

Meanwhile, global plant-based yogurt isn’t slowing, especially in the US and EU, but the ANZ market will continue to feel the tension between consumer expectation (“local, wholesome, natural”) and the messy logistical reality of shipping tropical ingredients halfway across the world. For now the category survives, but its long-term resilience will depend on smarter sourcing, cold-chain optimisation, and the courage to innovate beyond coconut.

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