TRENOS SiGINT: United States Meat Alternatives Market (2025)

JC Analyst– September, 2025

Signal:

The signal isn’t “boom or bust”, it’s portfolio fitness. Headline numbers on the global market remain bullish to 2031, while the United States meat alternatives retail is pruning chilled sets and nudging shoppers toward frozen, value, and flavour-first formats. M&A (Loma Linda/Tuno), rebrands (Beyond→“Beyond”), and new chicken lines (JUST Meat) show operators chasing taste, price, and convenience over ideology. Expect more blended, cleaner-label, and channel-specific plays as brands follow where velocity actually lives (frozen, QSR/foodservice, club).

Human Factor:

Shoppers aren’t quitting alternatives; they’re rejecting underwhelming ones. If it eats like dinner and prices like dinner, it sells, especially in frozen where waste risk is lower. Messaging that swaps “worthy” for “tastes brilliant, weeknight-easy” will outperform.

TRENOS Metrics Snapshot

Signal	Data Point
Market Size (Global)	US$9.6bn (2022) → ~US$20.8bn by 2031; ~10.2% CAGR.
US Retail Trend	Plant-based meat retail down ~7.5% to US$1.13bn; units −10% (52 wks to Apr 20, 2025). Refrigerated burgers −26% YoY.
Channel Dynamic	Refrigerated in decline; frozen more resilient; foodservice shows brighter spots.
Product Moves	Eat Just launches JUST Meat plant-based chicken into U.S. retail.
Corporate Moves	Century Pacific acquires Loma Linda/Tuno (consolidation, value-buy).
Brand Strategy	Beyond drops “Meat”, pivots to simpler, cleaner-label positioning.
Shopper Behaviour	Fewer chilled SKUs per store; assortment tightening around velocity.
Ingredient/Format	Chicken-style, nuggets/strips, and versatile grounds prioritised; cleaner labels rising.
Consumer Segment	Flexitarians remain core; value-sensitive families trade into frozen multipacks.
Trend Classification	Re-segmentation & quality pivot (Taste > Ideology; Frozen > Refrigerated).
System Pressure Point	Price parity and sensory performance; retailer rationalisation of chilled sets.

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