TRENOS SiGINT: Almonds Surge as Global Demand for Plant Protein Grows

Analyst: Scott Mathias – December, 2025

Signal:

Global almond supply is ramping up, production is forecast to hit 1.8 million tonnes (shelled), the highest since 2020-21, underpinned by favourable yields in the US, EU and Australia. At the same time, shifting consumer demand toward plant-based and flexitarian diets has elevated almonds as a credible protein source, offering about 21–22g protein per 100g, comparable to many animal proteins.

Human Factor:

For everyday consumers — vegans, vegetarians, flexitarians, or simply those trying to cut back on meat — almonds are becoming more than a snack. They’re a convenient, shelf-stable way to boost protein intake, snack smarter, or add nutritional heft to meals. In a world where interest in alternative proteins is accelerating, almonds deliver both familiarity and nutritional credibility.

TRENOS Metrics Snapshot

Field	Data
Signal	Rising global almond production + surging demand for plant-based protein
Data Point	1.8 million tonnes global shelled almond forecast for 2025-26
TikTok Views	— (not tracked)
Retail Footprint	Global — growing supply supports broader availability
Ingredient Format	Whole nuts, nut butters, almond flour, dairy alternatives (milk, yogurt)
Product Range	Snack nuts, almond milk, almond butter, protein-rich baked goods, plant-based dairy substitutes
Consumer Segment	Plant-based eaters, flexitarians, health-conscious consumers, environmentally aware consumers
Brand Origin	Global growers (US, EU, Australia), plus processors worldwide
Export Status	High — exports forecast around 1.1 million tons globally. USDA
Trend Classification	Plant-based protein uptake, nut category expansion, protein diversification
System Pressure Point	Protein supply sustainability; shifting demand from animal to plant proteins; agricultural supply scaling
Momentum	Strong (production increase + demand growth)
Sentiment	Positive — almonds seen as healthy, versatile, and protein-worthy
Where Signal Is Loudest	North America, Europe, Australia; growing interest in Asia and India as imports rise.
Related Links	FreshFruitPortal global almond production report; global almond market forecast 2025-2030. USDA +1

Long Play Analysis - Almonds Surge as Global Demand for Plant Protein Grows

The convergence of rising almond production and shifting dietary preferences suggests almonds may play a bigger role in global protein supply, not just as a niche nut category, but as a mainstream protein backbone for plant-forward diets. As almond output scales to 1.8 Mt, supply constraints ease, opening space for more value-added processing (butters, flours, dairy alternatives). This could accelerate product innovation, especially in regions where dairy or meat supply is expensive or environmentally contentious.

For the broader food system, almonds represent a lower-footprint, shelf-stable, high-nutrient protein vector, important as populations grow and dietary patterns evolve. If demand continues rising, pressure will build to ensure sustainable almond farming practices (water use, land management, fair trade). But if managed well, almonds could anchor a shift toward more resilient, diversified global protein infrastructure.

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